INVESTMENT AVENUES 1997 - 98 This text aims to provide a very broad insight into certain avenues for saving and gaining from investment. Those issues that are considered significant and relevant to the present times are covered here. Wherever considered necessary, risk factors are highlighted. Certain unhealthy and dangerous practices prevailing in this country are also mentioned here. However, in the quest to accommodate as many things as prudent within the smallest space, some finer aspects are left out. For specific queries regarding investment, tax savings, and savings plan to avoid losses, a more judicious view of the situation on hand will be required. You may contact Shri V. Sudarshan, the author of this text at 111 A, Pashabhai Patel Society, Race Course Circle, Baroda, Gujarat, India, Pin 390 007 Phones: (O) (91)-(265)-330085 (R) (91)-(265)-310507 in case of any doubt, clarification or further detail. This text mayrequire to be updated after the UnionBudget 1998 - 99
In order to invest one should have money and funds to invest in the first place. It is ordinarily presupposed that one should save for several reasons. It may be to provide a buffer or a security against unforeseen future eventualities and contingencies. Or it may be to enhance the social status, to acquire assets, to amass wealth for future generation etceteras. The excuses to save and invest are mostly derived out of our basic instincts driven by unlimited wants or comparisons or our insecurity or for saving tax. In India, a high savings rate of 25 to 30% of the annual income of the salaried class is not uncommon. In the case of businesspersons, it is believed that the rate of accumulation is much higher, though there are no estimates to the effect. The high growth of the business community, the amounts recovered from them during searches made by enforcement authority leads us to the belief. Right now we shall not confuse ourselves with the morality of accumulating wealth or the trusteeship principle of Mahatma Gandhi. We shall contain ourselves by exploring the various investment possibilities available to the common man in the country today. This text was prepared essentially to refresh my own knowledge. Several persons keep asking for various avenues for investment from the point of saving Income Tax. A Chartered Accountant is not the only investment specialist advisor and investment advice is just another small part of the curriculum, which cannot in any terms be considered as the specific privy of the profession. In fact, more is probably known to the Chartered Accountant because he deals with the ways and means and the sources and application of funds. If inquisitive, by dealing and studying the methods and forms, a good idea can be developed over a period of time by anyone who is interested in quality investment. An attempt has been made in this text to keep legal mumbo jumbo and professional jargon out. Most of the statistical information and tables are derived from external sources such as India Today, Economic Times, The Week, Shanbags investment books, Integrated News etceteras. If such information is reproduced verbatim, the source is suitably acknowledged. I hope that you will critically evaluate the text and let me know what more you would like to know and what ought to be here, but is not being covered here according to you. Mankind is insecure by nature. Unlike an animal whose requirements do not exceed beyond food for its survival and a territory to rest, man has perpetual desire. This perpetual desire is the driving force to make man accumulate things that he perceives to hold a store of value. Wealth is a creation out of holding of assets perceived to be a denominator of a measure of value. A plain piece of paper 5cm by 10cm would cost not more than 10 paise. But if the same were to bear some colour imprints, seal, inscription, serial number, facsimile signature of the reserve bank governor and a promise, it could be worth up to Rs. 500! Strains of yellow metal embedded in the mud have no practical use, but when refined and processed becomes valuable gold because of its scarcity. So store of value is ultimately a question of perception. Traditionally, savings were invested in scarce metals, cut and polished stones, land etceteras, that is, anything that was in short supply. This was extended to include buildings, property, paintings, sculptures, coins, artefacts, other assets all of, which could be translated into quantifiable sums in terms of money when and if the rainy day came. Nevertheless, it could be handed over from one generation to another. With the changing times we have new measures of store of value that are perceived and induced by faith either in the principle or the practice of such issue. This could range from various promises to maintain to or add to the worth of the issue. These savings could be voluntary or induced by the state policy such as the tax laws. We see the broad options that are available to us. Wherever instances refer to the tax laws, and there is some doubt, you may refer my compilation on the direct tax laws for more information.
The financial sector has been existing since the day business and trade started. There has thus been a continuous requirement for the two-fold option of investment and return. In this country, however, not much was known to the public till the recent liberalisation phase of the Indian economy. This has brought into limelight the financial sector of our country i.e. the fuel that fires business activity. The financial services sector comprises of the banks, non-banking financial companies, mutual funds, insurance companies, benefit funds, trusts, chit funds and nidhis. Thanks to the Harshad Mehta phenomenon that drove our stock markets wild and absolutely crazy, for once multiplying money seemed to be the easiest job in the world. Even the obscure street corner "Bhel poori wallah" talked of the Bombay sensitive index and provided tips on which scrips to invest in. Shoeshine boys and twenty something kids gave lectures about the Hong Kong and Singapore index, Dow Jones, and how our index was way down in "relation to international standards". Everyone with a little bit of money joined in the mad rush to make it multiply overnight in this easy fashion with utter disregard to the fact that false equations do not ultimately give correct results.
In 1992 Mutual Funds seemed to be a new divinity from the American heaven giving the "ultimate" choice in investment opportunities. But very few persons realised that the concept was already in existence in India since 1963 in the form of Unit Trust of India. Actually the term Mutual Fund is of American origin while Unit Trust is a British concept. The concept and methodology is the same but out here anybody worth his salt went out to open his own mutual fund with schemes promising totally absurd returns. Most of our public did not let their minds work and so we have big goof-ups with virtually all the Mutual funds having failed. Most of them in any case were fabricating results, Book values and Net Asset Values. It is only when the bubbles burst that something trickles out. By that time the so-called fund operators have made their personal moolah, siphoned it off and probably gone to America.
In 1993-94 unincorporated firms promised unheard of returns (some firms in Bombay were offering 35 to 40% interest) while real estate prices seemed to shoot up perennially because someone said that people from Hong Kong as well as multinational companies are coming in a big way ton India. We live amidst several big dreams. Virtually overnight, the great American dream of becoming a millionaire or billionaire became an Indian fantasy. Alas! Such dreams can only be dreams.
Since the last year we are witnessing a realistic situation. A time when reality has grasped the utopian euphoria and strangled the stock market, and in turn the mutual fund, industry in general, a banking industry assaulted by problems and an immobilised non-banking financial services industry. Now the time of fair play, intuition, foresight, and basics has come up. The importance of being a prudent, sensible, careful, serious and realistic investor rather than somebody who would hop at several questionable opportunities of making money fast is beginning to make sense.
Carefully planned, rational and realistic investment decisions, rather than tips provided by a dependable neighbour or broker or the friend who has made lakhs on his funds in ten days, is the vital element in a structured investment. The following broad principles should be very clear.
We now take a look at the prominent investment options along with their positive and negative features. But first we shall emphasise the concept of risk and return.
RETURN is the value addition to an investment in a given time-period. For example, if a bank deposit of Rs. 25000 on maturity after a year fetches a value of Rs. 27500, the return on the original investment is 10 per cent. We should note here that we are not considering inflation or the compounded rate of return into consideration, while arriving at the rate of return.
RISK is the extent of uncertainty associated with the actual realisation of the rate of return assured expected on an investment. The risk associated with any investment is influenced by several factors such as the industrial situation, economic factors, the financial and monetary policies of the government, political imbalances, natural calamities, managerial capacity and even the external environment. Further investment risk would include several qualitative factors such as the background of the promoters of the scheme and professionalism of the organisation that can influence the amount of risk associated with an investment. Generally, investments in government bonds or bank deposits are considered low risk while investments in speculative ventures are considered high risk. We can see the indicative table below.
Mutual funds could be open-ended or close-ended. The tenure could vary depending on the nature of the fund. � � These are indicative and may vary from time to time. Details prepared by V. Sudarshan Considering the above points, an investor should exercise the option of opting for the type of investment in relation to his or her risk bearing strength and capacity. In any case a judicious mix of investment avenues should be the ideal portfolio. We now consider the various investment options.
Some accounts of investing out of greed, lack of proper knowledge and appreciation of professional advice. These avenues are bound to be disasterous. Never play with your money.
Investments in equity shares of a Company come with the following in-built catches.
Obviously, this means that unlike other options where the investor gets a return on investment directly, over here the returns are based on Capital gains. In other words it is dependent on the market price at which the share is traded to obtain his investment return, especially in the short to medium term. It is imperative that one has to assess the likely price at which the stock will be traded at a future date before making an investment.
There is an easier option for the investor who does not want to buy shares off the stock market, the primary or new issues market offers an easier option. Shares are usually available at lower price-earnings multiple during an issue and the likelihood of price appreciation is much higher.
But in the business of shares, whether you buy from the primary or secondary market, you have to have a knack. The skill to choose the right shares, buy and sell at the appropriate time. These are competencies that have to be coupled with luck, your aptitude, risk taking capacity and deft decision making.
The Investment Strategy Most investment specialists advise a top-down approach. This means that the prospective investor should do the following.
This strategy is the most simple, eliminates complicated calculations and comparisons. It helps in structured elimination of certain industries with weak growth prospects or unfavourable demand-supply situation from consideration. It also helps to limit ourselves to core companies and increases attention to industries with growth potential. This policy is equally relevant to primary issues as well as acquisitions from the stock market.
At the same time the investor must assess favourable demand-supply situations and not concentrate only on growth prospects. This is because only if demand exceeds supply can companies in an industry obtain pricing flexibility and earn higher margins. If supply exceeds demand, competion will drive down margins and profits of companies. A very good example of this is the domestic airline industry, which saw attractive growth in 1995, but due to oversupply, most companies in the industry have fared badly even to the extent of closing down. The airline share values have eventually lost 80-90% of their market values in 1995!
Selection of shares The next vital step the investor should take is to identify shares within the sector that offer better value for investments. In order to do this the quality of the company and the share price have both to be considered. The following points may be borne in mind.
The other extreme may also be a dead-end. Companies having no investment programmes at all could very well have reached a saturation level in their business and may not have further opportunities for further growths. Thus the prudent investor should concentrate on companies that is a balance between the two. The company should have justified fixed investment programmes for addition capacities, which can be financed by funds generated by internal generations and moderate external debt.
Firstly, the company must have a sound balance sheet as explained indicated by various Key financial indicators such as ratios. (We are not taking all of them here, only indicative samples. Refer my separate note on accounting and financial ratios)
The potential investor is not always in a position to assess the financial capability of a company only by seeing a companys balance sheet or the ratios. Hence a better option would be to go through media reports and consultations with professional persons such as, chartered accountants. By attending the annual general meeting of a company can also give investors a feel of the companys management though it may not be the best judge of managerial competance. The best way is only to have better understanding that can lead to better savings and return on investment.
In respect of new issues, a glamourous future is generally shown to attract investors. Further, companies that tap funds from the capital market frequently, enjoy a poor discounting in the market. There is also the danger of such funds not being used for their core business and used to bolster the coffers of group companies or used for investments in stock markets. A study of the investments and loans and advances given in the companys balance sheet would throw light over such arbitrary end uses. In some cases, the stock markets react well before the company announces its financial results. This may be result of insider information, rigging, speculation on the director or chairmans speech or interviews to newspapers. Previous trends and results of similar companies in the same lines of business may also affect the share price movement.
The sole objective of the investor should be to buy a shares when they are available at prices, which are an under valuation of its true worth. The share value is denoted in terms of a multiple of net profit per share (Price per share in the stock market/ Earnings per share).
We take for example a company that has issued 100 million shares of Rs. 10 each (Paid up capital of Rs. 100 crore). This company is said to earn Rs. 3 per share (EPS) if it makes a net profit after taxes of Rs. 30 crore. Thereafter we can derive the valuation by dividing the market price of the share by the per share earning (Market Prices / EPS). If the market price of this share is Rs. 60, we can say that the share is trading at 20 times its earning. This is a way to value a companys shares by comparing it with valuation of other shares or with, past trends of the same share, from which an average can be derived to see whether the share is currently over or under priced.
We now have a sectoral analysis below on the major and core industrial groups for facilitating investment in shares. The analysis is based on freely available published material from various sources such as � Kotak Mahindra, � India Today, � Business Standard, � The Economic Times and � The Week. These are compiled and updated to reflect the broad future trends for the next one year in respect of core industries. In any case, being bound by the Chartered Accountants regulations, I do not take any personal responsibility for forecasts or future outcomes from them.
Stock Markets: Options and Outlook These industry trends have been worked out with a short-term viewpoint i.e. up to the year 2000. Political changes, Shifts in the countrys economic policy and unpredictability of the edge of local and global make it very difficult to make extremely focused projections. The details are based on current trends, global situation and future expectations only. STEEL SECTOR For the next two years, factors such as reduced government spending, infrastructure constraints, liquidity crisis and softening of international steel prices should have a negative effect on the steel industry. There should be steep reduction in internal demand in view of cheaper imports. Profit margins will be severely strained for producers. Most of the larger producers would be languishing out of past commitments. In the next three years, a situation of oversupply would result and ensure that only the most competitive or large producers are able to survive. Most of the producers have gone in for large-scale capital commitments by way of new technology that they will not readily be in a position to service. High inventory levels, Inefficient methods of operation and a persistant liquidity crunch would play upon this sector. Unless a demand and value-added quality product is produced and made available to the customer, this industry has a limited scope for positive growth, if at all it does not go under for a couple of years. PHARMACEUTICAL SECTOR Profits of Indian pharmaceutical companies due to the pricing system in vogue in this country have been achieved mainly by way of tax-saving measures and a substantial increase in non-operating / other income. The pricing system is being gradually disbanded, but at the same time several brands are being sold out. Only when companies reduce the proportion of non-operating income as a percentage of net profits and deploy surplus funds in core business major changes will not take place. Even if this happens, the returns will not be immediate. Many multinational companies in India have been restructuring their operations, the benefits of which should come about to these companies within a year or two. With gradual decrease in tax incentives the most benefited would be the multinationals viz. Their greater ability to introduce new products in the WTO era of International patents, technological advantage, perceived efficiency, consumer preferences, and marketing reach. SOFTWARE SECTOR This is a high-growth segment. With the depreciation of the rupee, software exporters will benefit further. Several multinationals are also outsourcing products from India, which should result in rapid revenue growth. The millenium bug or Y2K has added at least Rs. 2000 crores of business for the next two years. But, the future performance of existing listed companies will count solely on their ability to develop their own products and market the same. There is also a need to move up the value-added chain. Manpower shortage due to high staff turnover and subsequent effect on manpower costs will nevertheless be a drawback that this industry has to go through. The government is also unlikely to maintain tax incentives for this industry for long. The industry can prosper only through a long-term outlook by bringing its own products. India has certain basic advantages such as the English language and the comparatively low cost of skilled manpower. It is gratifying to know that over 82 companies have the ISO 9000 certification of quality. Further, prohibitively high cost of mainframes have resulted in Indian software professionals developing expertise in the client server environment. This has been a lucky turn as the world over there is a gradual shift from mainframes towards a client server environment creating excellent grounds and potential for Indian software. FERTILIZER SECTOR Government subsidies and administered prices should help in continuing strong cash flows of nitrogenous fertiliser companies. Further, the demand-supply gap is expected to persist for some more years as well, which makes the sector attractive. There has been indication that the sector may be decontrolled given the ways and means of the Government and the distorted usage pattern after the partial decontrol of this sector. Although gradual phasing out of subsidies is in the offing the entire process may take at least 5 years. There is, however, a problem of pollution control norms to be followed by certain producers that may adversely affect production. On the other hand Phosphate-based fertiliser manufacturers would continue to face hard times due to slower off take, increase in raw material costs on account of rupee depreciation and competition from imports will affect bottom line. Paradeep Phospates has virtually closed down this year. Raw material resources in Nauru are also depleting leading to increased costs of realisation. Profits are expected to be stagnant, or lower than the previous year. Higher inventories are also expected to affect revenue for the next two years. PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR Prices of petroleum products have stabilised and are in fact firming up. Local prices are more or less at the same price level as in the same time last year. Following the customs duty reduction in the Budget, prices temporarily declined by 3-5 per cent, but went up once additional duties were imposed. A very large quantum of fresh capacities have been commissioned in the last one year and more is likely in the next year as well. This would invariably ease supplies causing prices to soften during 1997 and 1998. Polyethylene and polypropylene are growing even faster at 15 per cent annually in India and at 10 per cent in Asia, which is not at all surprising as there is a large supply gap, that will take a while to be bridged. On the other hand the Indian Government is gradually reducing tariffs and this is expected to continue for some time. Duty reductions combined with lower prices due to the devalued Indian rupee will increase competition. In this situation large integrated companies with control over production and supply, good access to port and good infrastructure facilities should grow substantially. REFINERY SECTOR All the companies in this sector are governed by a pricing scheme, which assures a return of 12 per cent a year after taxes, with some scope for incentives. The actual return on net worth of some of the companies in the public sector is well over 20 per cent. Like other sectors in the economy, full decontrol is being actively considered. Diesel for example is already out of the controlled pricing mechanism and has a floating rate. Liberalisation of the economy will no doubt have its toll on this sector, which should only prove a strong upside for this sector. Moreover there is a wide demand supply gap and virtually no price resistance. This sector should see a high rate of growth. OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION Realisation on crude oil are government determined resulting in steady returns, strong demand growth, increasing demand-supply gap, which are all positive. Further, decontrol of this sector is in the offing, with several regions already given to private operators for prospecting. But the gains would be gradual, as massive windfall profits from deregulation cannot be immediate. Moreover allowing high returns would be politically courageous and unwise in our feeble political governance and is unlikely very soon at least. AUTOMOBILE SECTOR This segment can be broken up into the commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle segments. For commercial transport manufacturers, demand is likely to grow to cater to the replacement market and for addition. However, this segment would be dependant on the overall growth of the economy. As for the passenger vehicle segment there should be a growth in demand for personal vehicles in both four and two wheeler segments. However, due to several producers or mismatches in the price-range and consumer brackets some manufacturers may not do well. The passenger vehicle segment is highly price and quality sensitive and growth rates would depend a lot on what the manufacturers supply for the bulk market. Kotak Mahindra estimates that in the next two years in volume terms in key segments growth rates are as follows Utility vehicle 20%, Two wheelers 13-15%, Commercial vehicles 20%, Passenger cars 30% (But some may grow at the cost of others). COTTON TEXTILES Cotton prices are plunging lower each year and rates have virtually bottomed out now. But this has caused serious liquidity conditions and thus, only cash-rich companies will be able to benefit now. Those with clear-cut reorganisation plans and marketability should continue to benefit. But at the same time it has to be considered that looming over capacity in cotton yarn may start affecting margins of domestic and exporting units in due course. AUTO ANCILLARY SECTOR This should be the largest benefactor out of growth in the auto sector. It is likely to consolidate its status as a source base for global majors in due course as well. At present this sector is highly dependent on the domestic auto industry. Any adverse impact on the local automobile sector will cause a downswing in the domestic sales of these companies as well. But as these companies start exporting and establish a good overseas and after-sales market, the dependence should not be of relevance. The major drawback however, is that most of the listed companies are quite small in terms of sales turnover, market capitalisation and shares in float in the stock exchanges. Recently, the Economic Times had a sample list of about 100 listed auto component companies of which only eleven had a sales turnover exceeding Rs. 100 crore for the year 1996-97. The other fact is that most of these companies are based either around Delhi, Punjab or in Tamil Nadu, the local laws may effect all of them at the same time. POLYESTER Looming over-capacity has begun to affect margins as there is at present virtually no overseas market and the local market is facing a glut. The situation is expected to become adverse over the medium to long-term. With small and medium-scale manufacturers slowly closing down due to poor economies, in a period beyond three years supply to demand should balance out. Till such a time only the large-scale manufacturers have an edge. HOTELS Continued erosion of the Indian Rupee by devaluation, significant growth in tourist traffic (At present the growth in domestic tourism is much higher than the overseas tourist segment) and a healthy growth in the business travel segment is likely. This holds well for the future of this industry in general particularly that of the hotels in metro cities / principal towns in particular. Three and Four star, besides budget hotels in mini-metros and industrial zones should also do well from the increase in trade. PAPER Temporary oversupply in the domestic market currently caused by lower exports and higher imports may continue for a few months, with spurts of shortages. This is due to a shakeout in the paper trade in international markets. Globally, it is expected that within a year the inventories should fall coupled with an increase in the realisations. Provided, the import prices firm up and there is a devaluation of the rupee and anti-dumping duties continue, there would be scope for exports which should further boost the trade. BANKING AND FINANCE In any economy with a nascent industry and moderate to high levels of growth, the scope for banking and Finance sectors cannot be undermined. Retail commercial banking should do well with excellent loan and deposit growth prospects. Besides, there should be very low financial or good intermediation role of banks between borrowers and lenders making the banking sector attractive. For financial institutions, improved liquidity conditions will help to raise resources at a lower cost. The government has been gradually relaxing its norms and easing up on its restrictions on interest rates, reserve ratios and autonomy. A host of private banks have also come up in competition, which should help only to boost the banking sectors. On the other hand merchant banking activities would be dependant on the activities in the stock markets. CAPITAL GOODS Economic growth will create a continued and sustained demand for capital goods that would require to be met by imports. Export-related imports of capital goods are subject to a concessional duty structure and devaluation of the Indian currency and demand for our products outside India. Bearing this in find, segment-wise prospects would be positive or neutral on a case to case basis and the industry to which the goods cate to. CONSUMER ELECTRONICS This is a competition oriented industry that has intensified with the entry of several leading international players. This has hit profit margins down and reduced the overall market shares of some Indian manufacturers. Multinational ventures, are still testing the waters and as of now identify themselves with upper market segments which are price insensitive. Nevertheless, foreign ventures resort heavily on imports, even though they finance some projects through the domestic market. But as things progress it is hoped that more manufacturing bases, newer products, heavy marketing and advertising etc. expenses aimed at future profit would make this field more interesting. Of course the success of this sector is dependant on the ability to penetrate the market.
SOME MOROSE AND A FEW PROMISING PROJECTIONS Nine months after the union budget and the fall of the 13.5 party led union government, investors have begun to doubt the Governments capability to contain its fiscal deficit at 5 per cent of the GDP. Jardine Fleming India, says that tax revenues are likely to fall short by Rs. 4000 crore as industrial growth will be a third lower than last years 12 per cent. It states that unless hikes are made in PDS prices, the food subsidy could exceed the target by Rs. 1000 crore to Rs. 1500 crore. In the event, Fleming estimates the deficit will be 6 per cent. Some of our FIs also have similar doubts. But in all eventuality, while tax targets may be achieved by intermediary adjustments in prices, large collections out of VDIS and hold-up of large capital commitments would contain the revenue targets. But government expenditure should be higher on account of the pay commissions recommendations and the elections. This may cause the deficit to be higher by 1.5 to 2 per cent of GDP. Clearly, the new finance minister will have a very tough job if he means business. RETURN OF THE INVESTORS Domestic investors (mostly financial institutions) are once again active in the stock markets. But the retail investor is practically absent from the trade except in selectively good issues. While the sensex bottomed out at 2820 points, it now hovers around 3500. From a low of just around Rs. 1100 crore in January 1996, domestic investors took delivery of over Rs. 3500 crore worth of shares in June 1997. While this has contained the market from a major fall, it also means that the investor support for the markets is getting slightly selective and broad based. A major growth in the markets is unlikely in the next year or so. Most foreign institutions may also be forced to pave their way back home, even at least temporarily. Temporary fall-outs nevertheless, growth will be detrimental on the industrial recovery in the country. IMPACT OF FREE TRADE After the WTO treaty came into effect, the Government is taking a serious look at its possible impact with the Ministry of Commerce having assigned three research institutes to do a detailed analysis. While the NCAER is analysing the impact on agricultural exports, the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations is studying the effect on services exports and the Research and Information Systems for the non-aligned and other Developing Countries is looking at the impact on manufactured product exports. Based on these reports the ministry intends to propose schemes to boost trade in each area.
INWARD BOUND With the competition in international markets getting fiercer, the Public-sector State-trading Corporation has decided to pay more attention to the domestic market. STC is planning to develop its own brand names for the sale of rice, tea, edible oil and pulses. MMTC on the other hand proposes to import heavy metals such as gold, platinum etc. DRILLING COLLABORATION The Oil And Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is holding protracted negotiations with the sevral international oil companies for joint deep-water (more than 400 m deep) oil exploration. This should help ONGC to lower its operational costs considerably if a good deal comes through. DEVALUATION OF THE RUPEE With continued devaluation of our currency from Rs. 11 per dollar in 1986, Rs. 18 per dollar in 1990, Rs. 35 in 1996 to nearly Rs. 40 in 1997; the repercussions are anything less that frightening. This means decrease in the value of our reserves and increase in the value of external loans. This unchecked increase is nothing short of a disaster for the country. A loan at 5% for $100 in 1986 cost Rs. 55 in interest and Rs. 1100 in principal. Today it will cost us Rs. 200 in interest and Rs. 4000 in principal to repay. Now you can understand why foreigners are not happy in investing directly in India. More so the way foreigners pay their employees, which they would never do but for the abberation we have before us. The Big Apple would be full of maggots for our Indian friends, but for this lousy inequality.
Mutual funds are usually trusts that act as an agent or a intermediary, which collect the savings of individual investors and invest the moneys raised in a diversified portfolio of securities such as equity, bonds and other instruments. Small investors contribute their money into this common pool or fund and hand over the investment decision to the fund managers. The fund managers comprise a management company or group of professionals who invest the trust funds as a single portfolio for maximising returns. The theoritical advantages for the small investor is that there are no more searching for good buys or obscure decisions relying on the neighbourhood sub-broker for advice or even waiting anxiously for allotments. This is taken care of by the cumulative size and bargaining power of the fund.
The mutual fund is a tool to reduce the risk associated with investing in a single securities portfolio. Naturally, investments in a securities portfolio is to be done after an in depth research of the economic scenario, industry and company analysis. The fund managers own experience, judgement and intuition also play a vital part in deciding the investment process. A unit of mutual fund is equivalent to investing in a large number of companies. The fund normally distributes the entire income / profits after mangement costs from the investment to the investors in proportion to their investment. For the small and lay investor, mutual funds offer a better investment option than the share market. Mutual funds usually have a large corpus of funds which enables them to achieve transactions at relatively costs on brokerage, postage, printing etc., besides they can command much better market rates than individual investors. There is also investment decision after in-depth research of economic, industry and company factors.
In practice, these facts are far from flawless, as investors who have lost their shirt will qualify. The Professionals who manage several of these funds are simply not good enough, they tend to be highly paid without discriminating their efficiency vis-�-vis the pay drawn. There is a tendency by some fund managers to misuse funds and invest in scrips for personal advantage that ultimately lose money for the fund. Mutual funds may not quantify any minimum returns and end up offering sub-standard returns. Investors then have only the choice to be very selective in exercising their choices. Mutual fund schemes generally fall into one of the four broad categories:
These schemes can be further classified into the following i.e. open-ended or close-ended.
NAV= (market value of all assets + accrued income accrued expenses) / number of units. All accrued income, receivables are added to the market value of the mutual fund schemes assets while all accrued expenses payable and other liabilities are deducted from the market value. Additionally, some open-ended funds offer the flexibility of regular or periodic investment plan and regular withdrawal plan to investors.
(ii) Close-ended funds These are schemes that are operational for a specified period only. They have a fixed corpus and terminate after the term ends. At the end of the term, the entire corpus is disinvested / transferred to other funds to realise liquid funds and the proceeds are proportionally distributed to the unit holders. Repurchase of the units during the scheme period may or may not allowed depending on the terms of the scheme. A close-ended scheme is generally listed on the stock exchanges. Depending on the objective for which the close-ended scheme has been floated, it can be classified into a growth scheme or an income scheme.
The objective of a growth scheme is to provide the investor substantial capital appreciation at the end of the period. Hence, the funds collected in this scheme are mainly deployed in high growth equity related instruments. An income scheme, on the other hand, provides the investor regular income on his investments.
What to consider:
B. While buying from the market The extent to which the buying price is quoted less than the Net Asset Value should be seen.
If it is a close-ended scheme it is wise to consider buying it close to redemption. Mutual fund managers usually invest the funds in high and fixed income instruments such as debentures and bonds. These schemes aim at declaring regular dividends.
HOW TO EVALUATE A FUND
(This evaluation is only an Indicator of whether the fund is performing better than the market or not. This is not an indication of the actual returns.)
7. Deposits With Banks, Companies Etceteras Commercial Banks, Non Banking Finance Companies (NBFC) and Industrial Companies offer investment options in the form of fixed deposits. Deposits with Banks and Companies are the traditional and most well known among investment options. The investor should take care to follow a few precautions before making his investment. Especially as fixed deposits are totally unsecured deposits, which means that if the company or bank concerned goes bankrupt, the claims of the fixed deposit holders have the last priority to get payment on the companys / banks liquidation under law. Companies / Banks also give depositors the flexibility of regular returns (monthly, quarterly, and half yearly) on their investments. Hence such deposits offer a very liquid and flexible investment option offering a moderately high return at a nominal risk.
Fixed / Term Deposits with banks - Fixed deposits with commercial banks is a safe form of investment, especially if the bank is a nationalised one. There are several foreign and private banks that too accept fixed deposits. Banks accept deposits both for flexible terms such as 30 days to 60 months or more, at variable rates of interest. While banks offer facilities such as loans against deposits, pre-closure option, the return from bank deposits is usually low ranging from 5% to 12%.
What to consider:
Deposits with non-banking finance / industrial companies - Non-banking finance companies are allowed to Accept deposits for periods ranging from 6 months and above up to a period of 5 years. But non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) unlike manufacturing companies have to get their fixed deposit schemes rated by credit rating agencies. Currently there are three agencies and the details of rating are given elsewhere in this note. The RBI has allowed rated NBFCs registered with it fullfilling certain conditions and accounting norms to offer any interest rate on deposits. However, reputed and professional non-banking finance companies may offer a maximum of 18-19 per cent for a two / three year deposit. They are also allowed to offer a brokerage of 1 per cent of the deposit amount. For a conservative investor, deposits with good, and rated and long-standing non-banking finance companies is one of the best investment options. Deposits can also he foreclosed any time after the expiry of three months from the date of placing the deposit. Loan facilities could be available, but are not automaticas in the case of some banks. However, premature withdrawal facility subject to reduction in interest rate at the discretion of the company is available. In the case of a industrial company the maximum interest on a deposit would be around 15%, other terms being similar.
What to consider:
Savings A/c Deposits This is targeted at small savings. Offered by all banks and post offices. There is no lock-in period and Money can be withdrawn whenever the need arises. Interest is paid on the minimum balance between the 10th and last day of the month at 4.5% p.a.. The interest is credited to the account bi-annually. This is a conventional banking account for which 50 cheques (only bank savings a/c) in a year are allowed to be drawn. Currently interest earned on Post office saving accounts are exempt from tax.
What to consider: Since the returns are very low, the balance amount should not typically exceed household requirements for one month. Surpluses should be accommodated in higher return investments.
Fixed Income Instruments These normally have a fixed tenure and carry a fixed return, but are different from fixed deposits in that they are listed on stock exchanges and can be traded. The issue period is limited and they cannot be purchased from the company after issue closes. When offered by government institutions, public sector units and other quasi government bodies, these are called bonds, and when offered by private sector corporate, debentures. There is currently no ceiling on the interest rate or the coupon rate as it is called for such instruments that can be offered. The tenure and the periodicity of returns can vary for different instruments issued. The returns can also vary depending upon when and what price they are bought and when sold. It is relevant to mention here that though these instruments are traded on the stock exchanges, the trading is largely institutional with transactions usually amounting to more than Rs. 1 crore. Thus, buying and selling these instruments on the secondary market for attractive yields is out of reach of the retail investor as of now. There are also special types of bonds called tax-free bonds, which offer a maximum of 10.50 per cent return. This return is totally exempt from tax. These are particularly attractive for individuals in the high income-tax bracket. For Individuals who are paying tax at the rate of 30 per cent the return works to 15 per cent. When investing in fixed income instruments it is worthwhile to evaluate risk on the same parameters as fixed deposits. All bonds and debentures of more than 18 month tenures have to be rated by credit rating agencies.
What to consider:
HOW TO INVEST
CALCULATING YIELD Returns from a fixed income option are expressed differently as either interest rate or yield. These are however, two different concepts. While interest rate only denotes the rate at which interest is paid on the face value (in the case of instrument) or the principal amount (in case of deposits), yield signifies the actual return on the investment. For example, consider a debenture (face value Rs. 100) with a maturity of one year which carries an interest rate of 15 per cent payable at the end of the year. If one buys the debenture for Rs. 100 at the public issue the yield is 15 per cent. However, if the interest is paid monthly (at Rs 1.25 a month), then the yield will be higher although the actual interest received during the year is the same. This is because the interest received monthly is also assumed to have earned interest at the same rate as the debenture. Thus the yield in this case will be 16.075 per cent. Similarly, depending upon the period of payment of interest, there can be different yields. The simple way to calculate yield or compound interest is: Yield = Principal x (1+r) n /100 Where r = rate of interest, n = number of years If the compounding is at a frequency of more than once a year, then the formula is: Yield = Principal x (1+r/m) nxm /100 Where r = rate of interest, n = number of years, m = frequency of compounding If the debenture has been picked up from the secondary market at say Rs. 90 then the yield will be 16.67, percent. This is because the interest is paid on Rs. 100, the face value, while the actual investment is Rs. 90. If the maturity exceeds one year then the concept remains the same. However, the calculations become more complex. In the case of corporate fixed deposits, many schemes claim to offer more than 20 per cent return over a five-year period. In effect, they offer an interest rate of 15 per cent compounded monthly. This gives a yield of 16.075 per cent for the deposit. Effectively, the amount in the deposit at the end of the first year (principal amount + 16.075% interest on it) is again eligible for interest at 16.075 for the second year. This results in a higher amount at the start of the third year, which again earns an interest of 16.075 % for the third year and so on till the end of the fifth year. Therefore, the total amount in the deposit at the end of the fifth year would be Rs. 210.07 for every Rs.100 invested. This is incorrectly touted as 22 per cent return per year. The yield remains 16.075 per cent. Yield, then is, the true representation of the return on investment.
8. Insurance Policies
To most people an Insurance policy would not figure in any Investment list. We always see an investment in terms of a return while a pure Insurance policy is only a compensation for an uncertain event or risk. In the case of the Insurance policy, we also wish that the event that evokes the return should not strike us. Disaster often strikes when we are most unprepared for it and could ruin us physically, mentally and financially. Insurance policies have been included for the fact that any contribution allows tax benefits in addition to the security cover against accident and unexpected illnesses rather than as return yielding investments. It is more of an investment against the occurrence of an unwanted or unforeseen event in the manner of compensation thereof. In the case of an unexpected accident or illness, the physical, mental and financial trauma could be reduced by taking suitable insurance covers. Hence this is recommended as an essential part of the overall investment portfolio. Over here we are only relating to policies affecting individuals. Transit, Vehicle, Marine and third party insurance is not covered here. (A separate note on filing Insurance claims is prepared by me.)
The Personal Accident Insurance Claim and mediclaim are offered by the subsidiaries of the General Insurance Company of India (GIC) namely The New India Assurance Co. of India Ltd., Oriental Insurance Co. Ltd., National Insurance Company Ltd. and United India Insurance Ltd.
The premium payable on these policies is nominal compared to the risks they cover. The premium provides a tax rebate as the amount paid can be deducted from the taxable amount for calculation of the final tax liability. Covering the whole family entitles you to a discount on the premium and hence it is advisable that all the members of the family be covered through a single policy at the same time. The earlier you buy insurance, the better, since premium rates payable on these policies rise with age. Mediclaim also gets you a no claim discount at the time of renewal of the policy.
9. Some New and Old Options
Did you ever consider how many investment options exist for an investor now? Sometimes there are so many good options that one is out of money to reap all the benefits. In this fast moving, constantly changing progressive world, fresh and enticing avenues have opened that now offer investors amazing returns. The simple bank or company deposit are now too traditional and fails to satisfy the average young urban professionals needs. Mutual funds have been unsatisfactory and most of them havent delivered the promised returns (Canbank, SBIMF, Indbank, Morgan Stanley, Taurus and big list of all the whos who in the Mutual Fund business). The bond market is for the big players and it too doesnt offer the small investor good returns at present. The capital markets are sinking everyday after the globalisation phase, the scams and the institution phase in which the small investors have been the worst hit victims.
So, what is the way out for the small investor? Where do we park our money for safe, liquid and yet high returns? There is no single or specific answer to this question.
Yet the investor has a range of traditional and non-traditional investments which do offer interesting alternatives. Metals, Gems and jewellery, Foreign Currency, Teak plantations, holding resort time shares, car time shares, floriculture farms, chicken farms, goat rearing farms, orchards and vegetable plantations are some interesting options that are available. We shall cover as much as we can.
Bullion & Jewellery Investment in Bullion or jewellery is traditional and though there may be temporary upsets in value, it is primarily a permanent store of value. The upside is that it offers an indefinite store of value free from the vagaries of inflation. It is a relatively safe investment with age. Typically also, the social need for investing in this avenue increases with age. We can see the salient features listed below.
Gems and Stones All the conditions applying to Bullion apply to gems and stones with the following additional conditions.
Property This could consist of land, land with building, air space, occupancy or tenancy rights in any form.
Agri-Investments These are the investments that deploy resources in agricultural activities and the harvested produce is offered as returns to the investor. Most of the non-traditional investments are agriculture based. Modern scientific farming techniques and agricultural expertise are employed to ensure the proper development and maintenance of the farm.
Teak Plantations Teak plantations are perhaps the most common and popular among the agriculture-based non-traditional investments. The scheme exploits the scarcity of timber and the resultant appreciation of timber price especially high quality timber such as teak and rose wood. When the investor joins the scheme, he makes a payment (either on an outright basis or through several instalments) and is allotted a specified number of trees, which the company shall grow on behalf of the investor. The investment amount is apportioned towards plantation development, marketing, and cost of plantation upkeep and maintenance over the period of the scheme. The company undertakes scientific growth and maintenance of the trees. At the completion of the scheme, the company offers the investors the tree duly cut ex-plantation or the realised sale proceeds of the tree. Investments are typically made in high cast timber yielding trees and the returns are computed on the basis of expected prices at the end of the scheme.
BENEFITS OF THE SCHEME: These schemes provide for long term capital appreciation. The prices of timber have appreciated manifold and with teakwood becoming scarcer and scarcer, their prices are shooting up.
Experts say that chances of prices falling is extremely low. Hence considering the huge requirements for timber and the demand-supply gap, the prices are only expected to appreciate more. Investments in teak plantations or other such high quality timber yielding plantations can be expected to provide long term capital appreciation. INTERIM RETURNS: These schemes also provide for returns after specified periods. Hence the investor is assured of getting back his investment after a certain period without having to wait for the long-term benefits. However, even these interim returns tend to be after a period of 3 to 5 years.
Tax free returns: Since investments in tree plantations are of the nature of agricultural returns, they are exempt from income tax.
However, though these investments provide for attractive returns, the investor has to be careful to ensure that fly-by-night operators do not dupe him.
Check for the following factors before you make your investment.
Risks in the scheme
PRECAUTIONS
Orchards and vegetable plantations These schemes are similar to tree plantations in that the company undertakes to plant, grow and nurture the fruit trees or plants on behalf of the investor. The vegetables/fruits produce is the returns to the investor. The customer can either opt to take a specified lot of vegetables at specific periods or opt to sell the vegetables/fruits and get his returns in cash. These investments are usually of a smaller duration such as 5 to 7 years unlike tree plantations, which are for a period of 15-20 years. Interim returns also start flowing from a much shorter duration, as the gestation period for such projects is short. However, the overall returns from these schemes might not be as attractive as that from tree plantations. Some promoters have established their own distribution network to ensure a speedy transportation of the vegetables harvested.
BENEFITS OF THE SCHEME
Risks in the scheme
(a) ACT OF GOD: These investments are also subject to risks from natural calamities such as floods, earthquake, drought, pests and diseases.
Precautions to be followed (a) Find out if the scheme has been covered under insurance against any natural disasters. (b) Verify if the plantation is suitable to the geographical location, climatic conditions etc. (c) Check for a disinvestment option, if any. (d)Check if the scheme offers a loan facility against your investment. (e) Check if transfer of investment is allowed. (f) Verify the credentials, experience and qualifications of the promoters and managers of the project. (g) Verify if the project is already operational and if so, at what stage it is in.
All the schemes that have been launched are of recent origin and are yet to complete a cycle. Hence the success of such ventures and the returns from these have not yet been proved. The investor is advised to keep this in mind before deciding on his investment.
Holiday Resort Time Shares Holiday time shares are unique leisure cum investment packages that have been designed to offer the investor free vacationing facilities at specified locations for a specified period, every year. While holiday time-shares have been a recent phenomenon in India, they have been quite popular in the western countries.
The scheme works as follows. The company builds resorts and maintains these. The ownership of the resort is sold to the investor for a particular unit of time, e.g., a week or multiples thereof. The price of the time-share unit depends on factors such as location of the resort, season or off-season etc. The investor or his nominees can vacation at the resort during the unit of time that he has opted for. This way, the investor gets to won the resort for a particular period without having to invest huge sums of money in buying the whole property. Moreover, the company takes care of the maintenance of the property & facilities. Since most of the companies own resorts at various locations; the investor also gets the benefit of owning time-shares at various locations by buying a single unit.
BENEFITS (i) Holiday resort time-shares don't offer the investor any direct monetary returns. However, they do offer the investor, the opportunity of owning property at various locations, although for specific periods only.
(ii) These investments can reduce the costs of holidays. The ever-increasing hotel tariffs often bloat up vacation bills. Buying time-shares could hedge the cost of vacations. Moreover, some companies offer the investor the facility of managing the facilities required for holidays.
While the concept of time-share holiday resorts has been catching on, the investor has to make a careful choice on his investments. Make a checklist on the following points before making your decision.
(a) Who are the promoters of the company? What is their experience? What are their previous business ventures? How much of capital have they brought in to the venture?
(b) How long has the company been in existence? How many resorts does the company own? What are the various locations where the resorts are situated? What kind of packages is being offered? Does the company have any international tie-up? Check if the company provides any discounts on travel, food etc.
(c) Verify if the time-share can be transferred to others on exchanged with others. Verify if the scheme provides a disinvestment option.
(d) Compare the schemes offered by various companies and check if the pricing is right.
Car Time Shares Car time-shares are based on the concept of time-share resorts. The investor gets to own a particular model of a car for a particular period in a particular location. The price of the time-share is dependent on the class of car (budget, economy or premium), period of ownership etc. While the concept of this investment is unique, its success hasn't been verified.
There have been recent ventures advertised lucrative returns from goat, chicken and rabbit farms. However, men with dubious credentials and background have often promoted them. These ventures by their very nature are risky and could ultimately end up in a disaster. While a carefully selected investment can offer returns far above those offered by traditional ones. The chances of losing the total investment always exist. The investor should also check with some experts in the field.
Foreign Currency This is a good investment only in countries like India where continuous devaluation takes place because of absurd policies of the government. The gains here are on account of exchange rate fluctuation. Typically you can hope to gain only on hard currencies (like the Us $ and the british pound sterling). Prior to 1992, Indian nationals were not permitted to hold any foreign exchange, but now each and every individual is permitted to hold up to 500$. The catch is that foreign exchange is not freely sold to individuals. So you have to acquire it on your jaunts abroad, get FTS released for a foreign trip collect the funds and then cancel your program returning only the excess over the permitted amount or buy it from the grey market (expensive and you may also land up with dummy or counterfeit currency). You can of course hold Travellers cheques as well.
Chit Funds Some refer to these funds also as Cheat funds , brought about by the manner in which most of these funds have operated in this country. Barring some southern / eastern states, such activities are banned in the rest of the country. In fact parliament brought the Prize Chits and Money Circulation Schemes(Banning) Act in 1978. At that time the concept of the chit fund was to have a pool of funds, to have an individual target to fulfil within a time frame and a draw at periodical intervals. The prize chit is essentially a lottery wherein once a member gets the prize his name is dropped from further lot of draws and in most cases no further contribution is required. The James Raj committee under the aegis of UTI and RBI stated that chit funds are prejudicial to the public interests and affect the efficacy of the fiscal and monetary policies of the country. The Committee recommended a total ban on all such funds and hence the bill for issue of the banning act was drafted. But the bill lapsed as the government fell and in 1982 an act was promulgated to regulate the trade. Now a chit is a transaction ( also referred to as chit, chit fund, chitty, kuri etc.) under which a person enters into an agreement with a specified number of persons that every one of them shall subscribe a certain sum of money (or a certain quantity of grain or goods instead) by way of periodical instalments over a definite period and that each subscriber shall, in his turn, as determined by lot or by auction or by tender or in such other manner as may be specified in the chit agreement, be entitled to the prize amount. Usually default in payment of a instalment results in forfeiture.
Shroffs, Money-lenders, Angadias, Nidhis etc. In the chain of investments the most risky are these lot of concerns. The investor should only opt for such investments if the term is very short and the person to whom the moneys are given is personally known well. The characteristics of such companies are stated below.
10. Tax Planning and Associated Investments
Lets us first look into the popular tax saving instruments like the Public Provident Fund (PPF) and the National Savings Certificate (NSC) and equity linked savings schemes. The Public Provident Fund and the National Savings Certificate are managed by the government are thus considered very safe investments though post tax returns could range between 12 to 18%.
Tax savers The union budget 1997-98 brought lots of cheer to the harassed taxpayer. While the standard deduction for the salaried class was raised to Rs. 20000, the tax rates were slashed to a maximum of just 30 per cent.
While a self-employed individual can write off many revenue expenses incurred by him as being tax deductible, the salaried class has no such advantages. Only, specific investment instruments notified under Section 88 of the Income Tax Act offer tax rebates
The investments under these provisions are:
11. Planning Your Investment The broad facts are as follows:
Proper investment of the surplus funds can bring in attractive benefits. The objective should be twofold: (a) Reduction in tax liability, and (b) Higher returns on investments.
(a) Regular income, and (b) Adequate cash flow after retirement.
Strategy: In the first phase the investor should take full advantage of tax exemptions. There are several such schemes the most popular being the Public Provident Fund (PPF), National Savings Scheme (NSS) and National Savings Certificate (NSC). After the investor has exhausted his limit for claiming tax deductions he can look out mutual funds where capital gains exemption is available. The third phase is when he can consider investing in fixed-return investments. Finally, the average investor is ready to take more risk and try investments such as equities and real estate where price appreciation is the name of the game.
Selection Parameters Age Group: In our investment framework we have taken a life-cycle approach while keeping in mind the tax liabilities of a salaried person. The framework was constructed keeping in mind the requirements of an average salaried person but could be modified depending on the risk profile of the individual investor. We assumed five phases in a person's investing life. The first segment (24 to 35 years) is usually starting out professionally. Hence, the emphasis is on building solid assets and / or getting solid, risk-free returns. The second segment (36 to 45 years) has already built a financial base and can afford to take a little more risk. The third segment (46+ years) is fast approaching the end of his / her career and ought to look at investments which offer high returns with little risk. These are assumptions based on average models. Investible surplus: As the amount increases, there is greater leeway to invest in higher riskand consequently higher returns. Therefore, a higher proportion of the portfolio would be in high risk-return opportunities. The investible surplus options have been provided for easy reference. These are indicative, and one parameter can be taken to stretch to another i.e. the investible surplus of Rs. 25000 could be taken to mean Rs. 25000 to Rs. 50000 and so on up the scale.
PERSONAL PORTFOLIO* The When and How of Savings
Age: 24 to 35 years (Investible Surplus in Rs.)
Age: 36 to 45 years (Investible Surplus in Rs.)
Age: 46 years + (Investible Surplus in Rs.)
* PERSONAL PORTFOLIO � INDIA TODAY 31st August 1996. It is clearly understood that the above is only a broad guideline and neither INDIA TODAY nor Kotak Mahindra (who have made the suggestions in this chart) will accept responsibility for any losses arising out of these advisories, which are in the nature of general suggestions.
INVESTMENT WATCH What to look out for? SOME HARD FACTS
WHY HAS THE DEPOSIT MARKET LOST ITS LUSTRE?
A wise investor should follow a few rules before investing his hard-earned money in a company.
THE CREDIT RATING CHART
INVESTMENT GRADES CARE (Credit Analysis & Research Ltd)
ICRA (Indian Credit Rating Agency)
SHORT TERM Including Commercial Paper
CRlSIL (Credit Rating & Information Service of India Ltd.)
SHORT TERM INSTRUMENTS
Note:
� V. Sudarshan, Thursday, 26 November 1998
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